As you can see, we should have a major snowstorm on our hands in a few days. This storm should affect Pennsylvania vey hardly. Here is the track of this storm, it will develop in Texasand really grab lots of moisture from the gulf. It is likely the to move through northern Alabama and central or eastern Tenesssee. Then from there, it will move into western North Carolina and West Virginia, as well as western area's of Virginia. You might be thinking, so far, dosen't this mean rain for our area. Well, in extreme southwestern Virginia, the primary low will feed moisture to a developing secondary low in southeastern Virginia. After that, the primary low ahould weaken signifficanty but still be excisting. By this time, almost all of the energy from the primary low has joined forces with the developed secondary low. This secondary low will then move NNE, over the central Del-Mar-Va. This storm will now move in a northeasterly motion and move just west of Long Island, and likely right over the capes of southeastern Massachusetts. So, with this storm moving to the south and east of our area, that dumps significan snows for us. So in this model, you see these 18-24 inch amounts and probably had a heart attack, well in area's like Bradford or in the northwesten part of Pennsylvania, they will already have a foot of snow before this storm starts from lake effect or the mini Christmas storm. So really, when you see thr 18-24 inches area, its really only about 8-12 inches. But here's where we talk about real snow. You see the area of 12-18 inches in the Pocono mountains, most of that however is fresh powder. Then you see an area of 9-12 inches extending from around just north of Pittsburgh to area's like York, then going to area's like East Stroudsburg, I actually think this area could be in the 12-18 inches range because I think the temperatures will likely be 1 or 2 degrees colder than what the this 00z euro model says. This area will still have temperatures cold enough for the whole storm to support snow, and I think if we get 1 or 2 degrees colder than the new 00z euro says, we would have a slightly better ratio. Then you see area's in 6-9 inches from Pittsburgh to Lancaster, to Allentown, once again, in these area's I think could have a slightly better ratio then stated by this model because this ratio is based off or a temperature of 32 degrees. We will have temperatures for highs in the lower 30's for the area's in 9-12 inches and possibly northern area's of the 6-9 inches range. The overnight lows will likely be in the low - mid 20's, in the 9-12 and 12-18 inch ranges, supporting a 16 to 1 ratio, not a 10 to 1 ratio like this model is based off of. So now we get into the 3-6 area where this model once again has ever so slightly warmer temperatures.I think this area will see around 6-9 inches of snow, pretty much in every area, I think should be moved up one more stage except the 12-18 inches range. Then you have of 1-3 inches in extreme southeastern Pennsylvania, around Philadelphia. I think this area will see more like 3-5 inches, but this is the area that I am slightly more concerned abut because it will be so close to the center of the storm. This is the area that will need to pay close attention to their radar with this storm to see where that rain-mix-snow line is. But, this area will by far have the wetest snow out of everybody in the state of Pennsylvania.
Above you have the temperatues when the storm is really impacting the Pennsylvania area significantly. This is a reason why the previous snowfall model had lesser amounts in the far southeast. So in this model you have temperatues in the low-mid 20's in the northwestern part of Pennsylvania, at that point, you have about a 18-1 ratio. Then you have widespread area's of temperatures in the upper 20's, which is about a 14-1 ratio. But, like I stated several times, I expect temperatues to actually be 1-3 degrees colder than this model shows, putting area's anwhere north or east of the 540 line, temperatures in the upper 20's, giving them a better ratio. After that, you have an area of temperatures in the low-mid 30's around southern Berks county, souhern Mongomery county, Philadelphia county, Delaware county, and extreme south Lancaster county. So overall, I expect tempertures for almost every area in Pennsylvania to be below freezing for this whole storm, except area's in the far southeast. Now, just to say, the new euro today shifted this storm farther south and east, yesterday at this time, we were looking at an rain storm, be believed the models yestarday had convective feedback issues. The model changed, but I am not going to pay attention to the gfs models because they talke a long time to get away from issues after they just had them, and still do.
Here is my snowfall totals map for this storm. I will have more details on this storm tomorrow, so stay tuned right here. I have a 65% confidence of this storm. I will have more updates on all of the storms set to affect Pennsylvania and trust me, there are a lot, so I will be updating a lot, but for now, good bye!
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